Optimistic About Labor in an Age of AI
The rapid advances of AI have reinvigorated old debates about human labor replacement with technology. As any horse-drawn carriage operator or elevator attendant can attest, these changes are inevitable as the shape and texture of our economy evolve. From agrarian to industrial to information technology, and now to AI, the only constant in the workforce is change. Indeed, ~60% of occupations today did not exist in 1940. However, with the “gradually, then suddenly” introduction of autonomous vehicles, warehouse robotics, and autonomous, reasoning AI agents, this process seems to have kicked into its highest and most unsettling gear to date.
AI has the potential to remake industries, solve seemingly intractable societal problems, and improve lives en masse. Yet, it also has the potential for great intentional and unintentional harm, whether exacerbated inequality, inhumane working conditions, social media addiction, malicious acts, or loss of privacy and dignity. Optimist Ventures steadfastly believe that the future can be bright with “human + AI” work partnerships, but only if we choose wisely.
Technology adoption is more a choice, than an inevitability. While not always the case, it should be a collective decision by all stakeholders, not just stockholders. Workers, customers, owners, governments, and investors have unique perspectives on and control over adoption.
At Optimist Ventures, we are investing in technology companies that are additive, symbiotic, and workforce-enhancing. We focus on sectors that we believe will be most affected by these changes: those with the largest labor pools (yet chronically plagued with shortages); the most manual, repeatable, or dangerous processes; the most proprietary unstructured data; and with limited digital transformation to date. These sectors — Healthcare, Insurance, Industrials, and Construction — are the economic backbone of our nation (and the world), representing nearly half of the workforce and of GDP.
We believe these sectors are on the verge of a large workforce transformation.
Like a power drill or eBike, AI can not only augment workforce productivity but also dignity across many different work settings. So far, we’ve seen companies applying Intelligent Augmentation (IA) to jobs spanning all color collars.
When AI’s application of speed and efficiency is paired with human decision-making, reason, ethics, and practical wisdom, near-magic can happen.
AI and Labor Alignment Framework
In looking for safe, inclusive, and constructive technology, we have tried to devise an aligned AI / Labor detailed framework. The assessment is never as simple as +1/-1 job as there are far-reaching stakeholder considerations that ripple as we introduce new technology.
This year, we were delighted to discover and build upon the Partnership on AI (PAI) guidelines. With the PAI framework, we score our target companies using the a Job Impact Assessment Tool with signals of opportunity and risk.
This assessment considers the effects from a wide variety of perspectives: agency, autonomy, power dynamics, mentorship, sustainability, compensation, adjacent job effects, and desirability of jobs.
There are numerous examples of solutions we have evaluated that require deep ethical questions and thoughtful frameworks around the use of technology and labor:
AI clinical decision support tools for life-threatening illnesses that are inherently probabilistic
Insurance underwriting AI that may incorporate certain socioeconomic and ethnic criteria
Robotic port automation technologies that displace workers but may create new jobs
Computer vision-enabled law enforcement surveillance that can reduce crime but also reduce human agency and privacy
We recognize that our work has far-reaching consequences and, thus, we include these ethical considerations in our investment criteria.
The Future of Labor Alignment with AI
We believe the next decade of AI adoption will remake industries and our own identities. Observing the immense potential of symbiotic, additive technologies across our largest labor sectors; armed with an AI + labor alignment criteria; and guided by historical precedent in other technology revolutions, we are optimistic about a bright future for AI and society, if we can choose wisely.